Vanguard Economists Project Solid U.S. Growth and Lower Inflation for 2026
Vanguard's economic team, led by Joseph Davis, has emerged as one of Wall Street's most accurate forecasters after their 2025 predictions proved remarkably on target. Their 2026 outlook suggests a resilient U.S. economy marked by steady growth, declining unemployment, and moderating inflation.
The economists anticipate tariff-related price pressures will persist through 2026, though potential tax cuts could provide counterbalancing stimulus. This projection comes as their 2025 forecast—predicting 4.4% unemployment, 97,500 monthly job gains, and 3% CPI growth—appears likely to materialize with unusual precision.
Market participants often overlook macroeconomic fundamentals when evaluating crypto assets. Yet these economic conditions—characterized by moderate inflation and stable growth—traditionally create favorable conditions for risk assets including Bitcoin and Ethereum. The absence of extreme volatility in traditional markets may encourage capital rotation into digital assets.
